There’s no shortage of dramatic headlines claiming a housing crash is looming. But the reality? It’s far more stable than many would have you believe. Let’s look at what’s really happening—and what industry experts expect for home prices in the coming years.
In some local markets, home prices are softening slightly as inventory grows. That’s a natural adjustment. But if you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, the forecast is much more balanced than the fear-driven stories in the media suggest.
One of the most comprehensive studies on home price forecasts, the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) conducted by Pulsenomics, reflects the insights of over 100 leading housing experts, economists, and analysts. And their collective outlook shows continued appreciation—not depreciation—over the next five years.
Here’s what their projections look like:
The key takeaway? Experts agree that prices will continue to rise—just not at the breakneck speed we saw during the post-pandemic boom. This shift points to a return to more sustainable and healthy price growth for the long term.
Let’s break it down further:
• Average projection: ~3.2% annual growth over the next five years
• Optimistic forecast: Around 5.0% per year
• Conservative forecast: Still sees about 1.5% growth per year
Even the most cautious analysts are forecasting growth, not a decline.
This widespread consensus suggests the market is correcting and stabilizing, not crashing. Regional variations will still exist—some areas may flatten briefly due to increased inventory, while others may outperform national averages thanks to low supply and high demand—but overall, price trends are moving up, just more moderately.
And let’s not forget:
• Foreclosures remain historically low
• Lending standards are stricter than in 2008
• Homeowners have record levels of equity
All of these factors reduce the risk of widespread distressed sales that would otherwise push prices down. So, if you’ve been holding off on buying in hopes of a big market crash, the data shows you might be waiting for something that isn’t coming.
Bottom Line
Despite the headlines, the housing market is on solid ground. Experts forecast steady, long-term growth—not a sharp downturn.
If you’ve been uncertain about what this means for your real estate goals, now is a great time to gain clarity.
National trends provide perspective, but your local market matters most. Let’s talk about what’s happening in your neighborhood so you can make the most informed decision possible.
